A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
