Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
